Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
